“Year over year, the data shows, this will be the strongest holiday season since 1999. But because consumers have been spending since September, there's not much pent-up demand. Consumers have already spent up demand.”
“Consumer spending is likely to become much more dependent on jobs and confidence by the third quarter, ... If labor markets have not turned, boosting confidence by then, the risk of a significant slowing in consumer spending will be very high.”
“They're moving away from bank cards and credit cards -- short-term installment debt -- into various forms of mortgage borrowing with lower interest rates and long terms.”
“The raises in interest rates will reduce the willingness and ability of consumers to continue their pace of borrowing. This is both directly -- through the cost of debt -- and indirectly -- because it's likely to slow house price appreciation.”
“Low interest rates and rampant house price appreciation have really been driving borrowing. As long-term rates finally start to rise, the pace of debt accumulation will slow.”
